In January, spiritsEUROPE published a new report that examines the past drinking patterns of citizens in Europe with a particular focus on Sweden to have a better understanding of the most effective and efficient approaches to reduce alcohol-related harm further.
As opposed to modeling studies, the report looked at 60 years of real-life data related to the the association between per capita alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm in Sweden and other EU countries.
The first conclusion is that, there is no clear long-term correlation between the level of, and trend in, general per capita alcohol consumption and specific trends in major alcohol-related harm indicators. The harm indicators studied are heavy episodic drinking, life expectancy at birth, drink- driving deaths, underage drinking and chronic diseases related to harmful alcohol consumption. This means that if policy-makers want to further decrease alcohol-related harm, the most effective and efficient policies are the ones focusing on at-risk groups rather than broad, untargeted ones that are affecting the entire population.
The second conclusion is related to the link – or rather absence of link – between prices and per capita alcohol consumption. In Sweden, prices increased above the inflation rates since 1996 but income, or more precisely, GDP per capita, grew even more since then. In other words, alcoholic beverages became more affordable while at the same time, total per capita alcohol consumption peaked in early 2000 and decreased ever since. As a result, one can conclude that price is an important element but an even more important one is to consider people’s income when wanting to assess the link between price policy and per capita alcohol consumption.
Expressed differently, the main factor to consider is affordability. In the case of Sweden, affordability seems to have had little or no impact on average per capita consumption. Alcohol affordability does not correlate with per capita alcohol consumption in the way it is often suggested. The alcohol-related harms examined in the report is declining irrespective of the level and trend in per capita alcohol consumption. This means other factors than affordability and per capita alcohol consumption may better explain the decline in alcohol-related harm indicators.
One encouraging finding in the report is the evolution of the Nordic drinking culture which appears to be approaching the Mediterranean drinking style of moderate consumption. The way Swedes consume alcoholic beverages as well as their choice of alcoholic beverages have changed. Their heavy episodic drinking behaviour is on the decline.
The overall conclusion is the huge complexity of the relationship between consumption and harm that is not amenable to simplistic and dogmatic solutions. spiritsEUROPE expects that the data and analysis the report contains can contribute to an open, informed and evidence-based debate in relevant policy settings.
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Listen to the interview of Dr Gregor Zwirn on the Missing Link report (6 minutes): https://responsibledrinking.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CP.AS-008-2022-Interview-Gregor-Zwirn-by-Ulrich-Adam-on-Swedish-report-MP3.mp3
